Much of the talk in the media revolves around how the Yankees are still paying $20 Million of the money due on AJ Burnett’s contract. This statement is accurate, however, misleading. The Yankees were on the hook for $33 Million over the next two years, regardless of whether AJ pitched for them or not. If they gave AJ the title of pie maker for post game celebrations, they would have paid him $33 Million. This economic reality is known as ‘sunk cost.’ Therefore, the Yankees aren’t still paying him $20 Million; they are only paying him $20 Million.
In order to access whether the return of $13 Million the Yankees received was a good deal, one only needs to look at the stats. Over the previous two years AJ Burnett was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. AJ had the third worst ERA for a qualifying pitcher both in 2010 and 2011 (5.26 and 5.15, respectively). In fact, the third worst finish was the only thing consistent about AJ Burnett over the previous two years. This begs the question, how much would a team spend on a comparable pitcher in free agency? Brad Penny, who had a similar year last season to AJ – not to mention a similar career path, was signed for $4 Million … by the Softbank Hawks of Japan’s Pacific League. Now, AJ has been a durable starter whereas Penny was injured in 2010, however, the similarities lead to AJ being exiled from MLB. Is this a fair assessment? Probably not, as AJ has shown flashes of his former self over the past two seasons, which is precisely the reason the Pirates are willing to take a chance on him.
The Yankees were left with a purely economic decision. What is AJ’s marginal value over the other available options, mainly Phil Hughes and Freddy Garcia? In the end, the answer was far less than $13 Million. In the end, the Yankees would have been justified outright cutting Burnett, if he did not return to form. Such is the harsh reality of a sunk cost. The Yankees just received $13 Million for an asset worth close to zero to them – and that is the business reality of the game.
Agree that Burnett is certainly not worth $13m/2. However, he's a much better pitcher than his ERA has indicated the past two years.
ReplyDeleteIF he could cut back on his disturbing trend in giving up the long ball, the Yankees would have a low to mid 4's ERA and a TON of innings (that part is almost a given). For a team with their ability to spend, $6.5m/year may not be all that ridiculous to consider. On the other hand, AJ Burnett sucks for another team now and because that team is Pittsburgh we can move on without ever hearing about him again...until he gets smacked in the eye by a baseball.
allbluechucks,
ReplyDeleteUnless you are claiming that the bullpen added significantly to his ER total, ERA is a rather unbiased indicator. I do agree he has potential to be better, but two consecutive above 5.00 seasons is pretty horrid.
I think that this situation further proves that Yankee (or ex-Yankee) pitchers should not step into the batter's box. Pittsburgh should have known better.
ReplyDeleteHonestly though, how heavily do you think NL GM's weigh prior batting experience when evaluating free agent starting pitchers?
Burnett had 300 plate appearances with the Fish between 1999 and 2005 but only 21 plate appearances (including 1 playoff AB)during the past 6 seasons. And who can forget the monster year he had in 2000 when his OPS was .877 in 30 plate appearances?